CS2 case EV calculator
The expected value of opening each of 40 weapon cases, from Valve's published drop odds and today's prices. The median case returns 44% of what a case and key cost; 0 of 40 return more than their cost on today's prices. Prices from 11 Nov 2026.
| Tier | Odds | Avg value | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec Grade | 79.92% | $4.07 | $3.26 |
| Restricted | 15.98% | $10.75 | $1.72 |
| Classified | 3.20% | $40.61 | $1.30 |
| Covert | 0.64% | $78.72 | $0.50 |
| Knife or gloves | 0.26% | $260.12 | $0.68 |
Every case ranked by expected return
| Case | Case price | Cost with key | Expected value | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| eSports 2013 Winter Case | $10.00 | $12.49 | $7.45 | 60% |
| Gamma Case | $2.36 | $4.85 | $2.76 | 57% |
| Gamma 2 Case | $2.41 | $4.90 | $2.72 | 55% |
| Prisma Case | $0.83 | $3.32 | $1.83 | 55% |
| Operation Vanguard Weapon Case | $3.68 | $6.17 | $3.34 | 54% |
| Prisma 2 Case | $0.82 | $3.31 | $1.72 | 52% |
| Operation Wildfire Case | $2.17 | $4.66 | $2.42 | 52% |
| Glove Case | $7.45 | $9.94 | $5.10 | 51% |
| Chroma 2 Case | $3.13 | $5.62 | $2.84 | 51% |
| Chroma Case | $3.92 | $6.41 | $3.16 | 49% |
| Chroma 3 Case | $2.67 | $5.16 | $2.54 | 49% |
| Spectrum Case | $2.86 | $5.35 | $2.61 | 49% |
| Spectrum 2 Case | $2.45 | $4.94 | $2.39 | 48% |
| Operation Hydra Case | $22.34 | $24.83 | $11.99 | 48% |
| Horizon Case | $1.17 | $3.66 | $1.72 | 47% |
| Operation Riptide Case | $5.41 | $7.90 | $3.68 | 47% |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case | $9.36 | $11.85 | $5.44 | 46% |
| Shadow Case | $1.32 | $3.81 | $1.74 | 46% |
| Revolver Case | $2.17 | $4.66 | $2.09 | 45% |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case | $6.34 | $8.83 | $3.92 | 44% |
| Falchion Case | $1.17 | $3.66 | $1.62 | 44% |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case | $2.96 | $5.45 | $2.41 | 44% |
| Operation Broken Fang Case | $4.28 | $6.77 | $2.99 | 44% |
| Shattered Web Case | $3.34 | $5.83 | $2.55 | 44% |
| Dreams & Nightmares Case | $0.75 | $3.24 | $1.37 | 42% |
| Winter Offensive Weapon Case | $8.05 | $10.54 | $4.44 | 42% |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | $6.53 | $9.02 | $3.75 | 42% |
| Fever Case | $0.51 | $3.00 | $1.19 | 40% |
| Gallery Case | $0.49 | $2.98 | $1.17 | 39% |
| Snakebite Case | $0.26 | $2.75 | $1.07 | 39% |
| Danger Zone Case | $0.81 | $3.30 | $1.24 | 38% |
| CS20 Case | $0.62 | $3.11 | $1.15 | 37% |
| CS:GO Weapon Case | $92.25 | $94.74 | $27.76 | 29% |
| Recoil Case | $0.19 | $2.68 | $0.77 | 29% |
| Clutch Case | $0.36 | $2.85 | $0.79 | 28% |
| Fracture Case | $0.30 | $2.79 | $0.75 | 27% |
| Operation Bravo Case | $50.21 | $52.70 | $13.93 | 26% |
| Revolution Case | $0.12 | $2.61 | $0.67 | 26% |
| eSports 2013 Case | $38.80 | $41.29 | $10.43 | 25% |
| Kilowatt Case | $0.07 | $2.56 | $0.64 | 25% |
How the expected value is worked out
Each rarity tier has a fixed chance: Mil-Spec 79.92%, Restricted 15.98%, Classified 3.20%, Covert 0.64% and a knife or gloves 0.26%, the odds Valve published in 2017. Within a tier every skin is equally likely. A skin's value is the cheapest listing for each wear, weighted by how much of its float range falls in that wear, with a 10% chance of StatTrak™. The key is Valve's $2.49 store price.
Two things this cannot capture: rare patterns and low floats sell above the cheapest listing, and selling a drop costs fees (15% on Steam). Expected value is an average over many opens; a single open usually returns a Mil-Spec skin worth far less than the cost.
Questions
What does case EV mean?
Expected value: the average price of what one case gives you, over many opens. Compare it with the case and key cost to see the average return.
Are the odds official?
Yes. Valve published per-tier odds in 2017 and they apply to all weapon cases. Odds for individual skins inside a tier are equal.
Why do most cases return less than they cost?
Most drops are Mil-Spec skins worth cents. The value of a case comes mostly from the 0.26% knife or gloves chance.
Does this include StatTrak?
Yes. 10% of drops are StatTrak™, priced from their own listings.